4
Two Dollar Bill
4yo Gelding · 8-13 · Draw 4 · OR 79
Meadowlands · Race 2 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
11%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Meadowlands | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-29 | Monmouth Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-08-08 | Monmouth Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-10 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-01-08 | Turfway Park | ? | 7th | 9th | −2 |
| 2025-11-30 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 9th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 6-8 · tight 78/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength28%
Delivery trend -0.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11/2025 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 30/11/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 14% | -0.02 |
| 08/01/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 45% | -0.07 |
| 10/07/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 08/08/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 71% | +0.11 |
| 29/08/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 88% | +0.06 |
| 19/09/2026 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |