Sebastianthe First
5yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 5 · OR 71
Meadowlands · Race 3 - Claiming · 1m
#6
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Monmouth Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | Saratoga | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2026-07-18 | Saratoga | ? | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-06-26 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Monmouth Park | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-05-10 | Monmouth Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +2.4% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/02/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 80% | -0.08 |
| 06/03/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 17% | -0.41 |
| 20/03/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 83% | -0.07 |
| 10/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 06/06/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 40% | -0.39 |
| 26/06/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 18/07/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 09/08/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 13/09/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 43% | +0.06 |