3
Hoseki
3yo Filly · 9-7 · Draw 2 · OR 91
Newmarket · British EBF Premier Fillies' Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f
#2
Rank
Odds
9/4
Win Prob
67%
Place Prob
48%
Rank
#2
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲2
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 2.1)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Haydock | 3 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-08 | Ascot | 3 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-07-10 | Ascot | 3 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-27 | Chester | 3 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-26 | Redcar | 4 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-11-18 | Newcastle | 5 | 4th | 8th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 67/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▬
Strength84%
Delivery trend -0.9% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 71% | +0.24 |
| 18/11/2025 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 50% | -0.38 |
| 26/05/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 27/06/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 10/07/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 08/08/2026 | 4th | 13/8 | 91% | 67% | -0.25 |
| 03/09/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |