7
Pendella
3yo Filly · 9-2 · Draw 5 · OR 86
Newmarket · British EBF Premier Fillies' Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f
#3
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
12%
Place Prob
20%
Rank
#3
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 2.6)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | York | 2 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Beverley | 4 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-06-06 | Epsom Downs | 2 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | York | 4 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-05-14 | York | 4 | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-04-05 | Southwell | 4 | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 1-2 · tight 84/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +3.7% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/12/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 92% | +0.16 |
| 04/02/2026 | 4th | 13/8 | 91% | 67% | -0.25 |
| 23/02/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 05/04/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 60% | -0.29 |
| 14/05/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 69% | +0.43 |
| 23/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 89% | +0.15 |
| 06/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 75% | +0.22 |
| 14/07/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 21/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 92% | +0.40 |