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Seren Star

4yo Filly · 9-9 · Draw 4 · OR 89

Newmarket · British EBF Premier Fillies' Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f

#5

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#5

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Progressive 3-time winner in 2025. As good as ever when close third of 24 in the Kensington Palace at Royal Ascot (1m, good to firm) in June but well below that level in a German listed race and another 1m handicap back at Ascot since. Up in trip. Hoseki the more obvious of the yard's pair.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength34%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.5
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Newbury 12/06/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR - · 1m Goo 12812/0625 @ Chepstow 17/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR - · 1m14y Goo 1284 @ Hamilton 22/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 3 · OR 79 · 1m1f35y Goo 134 · beat its mark22/08/2025 · OR 79 par22/084OR 793 @ York 07/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 83 · 1m177y Gd 132 · beat its mark07/09/2025 · OR 83 par4 @ Nottingham 08/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 83 · 1m75y GS 133 · beat its mark08/10/2025 · OR 83 par8/104OR 83C1 @ Saint-Cloud 09/11/2025 · Pos 13th of 18 · OR 89 · 7f209y Sft 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/11/2025 · OR 89 par3 @ Hamilton 17/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 89 · 1m1f35y Gd 141 · beat its mark17/05/2026 · OR 89 par17/053OR 892 @ Royal Ascot 17/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 24 · OR 88 · 1m GF 121 · beat its mark17/06/2026 · OR 88 par2 @ Ascot 05/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 91 · 1m Goo 136 · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 91 par5/092OR 91projClass-projected finish: 5th of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Ascot28th8th0
2026-06-17Royal Ascot23rd3rd0
2026-05-17Hamilton33rd4th−1
2025-11-09Saint-Cloud?13th12th+1
2025-10-08Nottingham41st3rd−2
2025-09-07York35th6th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/067/0917/055/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 3-7 · tight 59/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▬
Strength7%

Delivery trend +0.6% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 5th of 6.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/06/20254th13/266%57%-0.09
17/07/20251st2/189%100%+0.11
22/08/20251st4/596%100%+0.04
07/09/20255th6/168%56%-0.13
08/10/20251st15/261%100%+0.39
09/11/202513th13/266%29%-0.36
17/05/20263rd5/174%71%-0.02
17/06/20263rd40/10%91%+0.91
05/09/20268th5/174%22%-0.51