4
Supplicate
3yo Filly · 9-5 · Draw 6 · OR 89
Newmarket · British EBF Premier Fillies' Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f
#1
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
20%
Place Prob
26%
Rank
#1
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲2
Strength11%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 1.8)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 2
Class gap: -2.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Redcar | 4 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-08-13 | Salisbury | 4 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-07-30 | Nottingham | 4 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-05-22 | Bath | 4 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-12-03 | Lingfield | 5 | 1st | 5th | −3 |
| 2025-10-29 | Kempton | 5 | 5th | 9th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 73/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▬
Strength81%
Delivery trend -0.7% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/10/2025 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 64% | -0.02 |
| 03/12/2025 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 22/05/2026 | 1st | 8/13 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 30/07/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 13/08/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 15/09/2026 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 83% | -0.10 |