IvyArcIvyArc
1

A Bear Affair

2yo Colt · 9-5 · Draw 4 · OR 92

Newmarket · 200,000 Pound Tattersalls October Auction Stakes (GBB Race) · 7f

#3

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won Brocklesby at Doncaster in March and several creditable efforts in defeat since (including behind Night In Vegas in valuable sales race) prior to resuming winning ways at Salisbury (6f, soft) on Thursday. Useful but he will need to improve for 7f to turn the tables on Night In Vegas.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength55%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 4.1)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.4
Today: 2
Class gap: +0.6
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Doncaster 28/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 15 · OR - · 5f3y Goo 13328/0322 @ Ascot 01/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 3 · OR - · 5f Goo 1331 @ Sandown 28/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR - · 5f10y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS28/0511 @ Royal Ascot 17/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 25 · OR - · 6f GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS1 @ Sandown 03/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 88 · 5f10y Gd 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/07/2026 · OR 88 par3/071OR 881 @ Newbury 17/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 97 · 6f GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/07/2026 · OR 97 par2 @ Newmarket 22/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 18 · OR 94 · 6f Gd 133 · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 94 par22/082OR 942 @ Doncaster 10/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 17 · OR 92 · 6f111y Goo 126 · beat its mark10/09/2026 · OR 92 par2 @ Salisbury 01/10/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 92 · 6f Sft 134 · beat its mark01/10/2026 · OR 92 par1/102OR 92projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-01Salisbury21st1st0
2026-09-10Doncaster24th4th0
2026-08-22Newmarket25th5th0
2026-07-17Newbury18th7th+1
2026-07-03Sandown12nd1st+1
2026-06-17Royal Ascot16th5th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/0317/0622/081/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1593% of fieldRange 1-9 · tight 62/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +9.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 15. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/03/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
01/05/20263rd5/287%0%-0.87
28/05/20267th5/174%14%-0.59
17/06/20266th50/10%79%+0.79
03/07/20262nd4/179%86%+0.07
17/07/20268th11/142%22%-0.20
22/08/20265th9/153%76%+0.24
10/09/20264th20/10%81%+0.81
01/10/20261st4/179%100%+0.21