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9

Craven Force

2yo Gelding · 8-9 · Draw 3 · OR 54

Newmarket · 200,000 Pound Tattersalls October Auction Stakes (GBB Race) · 7f

#14

Rank

Odds

150/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#14

★ Timeform

Commentary

Limited impact in his 4 starts and surely booked for another struggle.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲2
Strength6%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 10.5 /10 (raw 7.8)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 2
Class gap: -2.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Beverley 23/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR - · 5f Gd 13023/0454 @ Beverley 04/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR - · 5f Goo 1334/0542 @ York 14/05/2026 · Pos 13th of 15 · OR - · 6f Gd 13314/0526 @ Redcar 23/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 56 · 7f219y Goo 126 · beat its mark23/09/2026 · OR 56 par23/096OR 56projClass-projected finish: 11th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-23Redcar65th10th−4
2026-05-14York213th13th0
2026-05-04Beverley47th9th−2
2026-04-23Beverley56th10th−3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/044/0514/0523/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1529% of fieldRange 9-13 · tight 70/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength31%

Delivery trend +2.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 15. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/04/20266th16/116%38%+0.22
04/05/20267th16/116%40%+0.24
14/05/202613th80/10%14%+0.14
23/09/20265th16/116%50%+0.34