IvyArcIvyArc
14

Polgaria

2yo Filly · 8-2 · Draw 6 · OR 48

Newmarket · 200,000 Pound Tattersalls October Auction Stakes (GBB Race) · 7f

#15

Rank

Odds

200/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#15

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Well behind Night In Vegas in a similar race over 6f on the July Course in August. This is more her trip but it's still hard to see her making a significant impact.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Class-adjusted form 10.5 /10 (raw 9.0)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Goodwood 12/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR - · 6f Sft 12212/0644 @ Lingfield 04/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR - · 7f1y Std 1284/0843 @ Salisbury 13/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR - · 6f213y Goo 12213/0832 @ Newmarket 22/08/2026 · Pos 16th of 18 · OR 48 · 6f Gd 116 · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 48 par22/082OR 48projClass-projected finish: 12th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-22Newmarket216th16th0
2026-08-13Salisbury34th5th−1
2026-08-04Lingfield48th10th−2
2026-06-12Goodwood48th10th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/064/0813/0822/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 1514% of fieldRange 9-14 · tight 67/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength24%

Delivery trend +6.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 13th of 15. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/06/20268th33/10%0%0.00
04/08/20268th14/126%22%-0.04
13/08/20264th150/10%25%+0.25
22/08/202616th125/10%12%+0.12