15
Pon Pon Dalia
2yo Filly · 8-2 · Draw 15 · OR 70
Newmarket · 200,000 Pound Tattersalls October Auction Stakes (GBB Race) · 7f
#8
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ NO MARK
Move▲2
Strength18%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 2.7)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 2
Class gap: -2.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 1st | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-08-17 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-08-01 | Doncaster | 4 | 5th | 7th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 1521% of fieldRange 14-15 · tight 75/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -12.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 12th of 15. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 64% | +0.27 |
| 17/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 86% | -0.01 |
| 07/09/2026 | 1st | 2/11 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |