IvyArcIvyArc
1

Blue Bolt

4yo Filly · 9-5 · Draw 3 · OR 119

Newmarket · BetMGM Sun Chariot Stakes (Fillies' & Mares' Group 1) · 1m

#1

Rank

Odds

4/9

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

97%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Most progressive at 3 yrs and has blossomed again this time around, winning all 5 of her starts, including Group 1s over this trip on her last 3 outings, latterly proving 2¼ lengths too strong for City of Memphis in Matron at Leopardstown 3 weeks ago. Will continue to be hard to beat.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength14%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 1.3 /10 (raw 1.5)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.3
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Newbury 12/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 1m Goo 13412/0621 @ Sandown 05/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 98 · 1m Goo 128 · beat its mark05/07/2025 · OR 98 par1 @ Sandown 30/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 102 · 1m Sft 126 · beat its mark30/08/2025 · OR 102 par30/081OR 1021 @ Newmarket 04/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 109 · 1m Goo 128 · beat its mark04/10/2025 · OR 109 par1 @ Goodwood 02/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 110 · 1m Goo 133 · beat its mark02/05/2026 · OR 110 par2/051OR 1101 @ Royal Ascot 17/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 15 · OR 110 · 7f213y GF 128 · beat its mark17/06/2026 · OR 110 par1 @ Newmarket 10/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 115 · 1m GF 135 · beat its mark10/07/2026 · OR 115 par10/071OR 1151 @ Deauville 02/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 119 · 7f209y Sft 130 · beat its mark02/08/2026 · OR 119 par1 @ Leopardstown 12/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 119 · 1m Gd 133 · beat its mark12/09/2026 · OR 119 par12/091OR 119projClass-projected finish: 1st of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12Leopardstown11st1st0
2026-08-02Deauville11st1st0
2026-07-10Newmarket11st1st0
2026-06-17Royal Ascot11st1st−0
2026-05-02Goodwood11st2nd−1
2025-10-04Newmarket12nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/064/1010/0712/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 90/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength100%

Delivery trend -0.8% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/06/20251st6/492%100%+0.08
05/07/20251st2/189%100%+0.11
30/08/20252nd7/282%92%+0.10
04/10/20252nd17/255%88%+0.32
02/05/20261st4/696%100%+0.04
17/06/20261st5/287%100%+0.13
10/07/20261st85/4089%100%+0.11
02/08/20261st4/596%100%+0.04
12/09/20261st4/596%100%+0.04