4
Calendar Girl
3yo Filly · 9-2 · Draw 5 · OR 105
Newmarket · BetMGM Sun Chariot Stakes (Fillies' & Mares' Group 1) · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲2
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 2.0)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.0
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Sandown | 1 | 6th | 7th | −0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Haydock | 1 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-10-10 | Newmarket | 1 | 1st | 2nd | −0 |
| 2025-09-11 | Doncaster | 2 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-08-15 | Epsom Downs | 4 | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
| 2025-07-24 | Newbury | 4 | 1st | 6th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 5-7 · tight 73/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -12.4% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/07/2025 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 15/08/2025 | 2nd | 1/2 | 97% | 86% | -0.12 |
| 11/09/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 10/10/2025 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 08/08/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 29/08/2026 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 44% | -0.38 |