2
City Of Memphis
4yo Filly · 9-5 · Draw 4 · OR 110
Newmarket · BetMGM Sun Chariot Stakes (Fillies' & Mares' Group 1) · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲3
Strength10%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 1.8)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 1
Class gap: -3.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Leopardstown | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Curragh | 1 | 1st | 1st | −0 |
| 2026-05-10 | Leopardstown | 1 | 1st | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-04-22 | Gowran Park | BHA106 | 1st | 14th | −10 |
| 2025-05-25 | Curragh | 1 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-05-06 | Cork | ? | 1st | 10th | −8 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 73/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength96%
Delivery trend +0.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/05/2025 | 1st | 8/13 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 25/05/2025 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 64% | +0.58 |
| 22/04/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 10/05/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 24/05/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 12/09/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 88% | +0.35 |