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5

Evolutionist

3yo Filly · 9-2 · Draw 1 · OR 110

Newmarket · BetMGM Sun Chariot Stakes (Fillies' & Mares' Group 1) · 1m

#3

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Capped fine juvenile season when third to Precise in Fillies' Mile over C&D. Returned to win a Longchamp Group 3 in the spring before chasing home True Love in the 1000 Guineas over C&D. Back to that level when 2½ lengths fourth to Blue Bolt in Prix Rothschild at Deauville (1m, good) in August.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength10%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.3)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.3
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Haydock 04/07/2025 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR - · 6f212y Goo 1284/0734 @ Newmarket 08/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 1m Goo 1281 @ Curragh 23/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR - · 7f Gd 12823/0811 @ Newmarket 10/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 98 · 1m Goo 128 · beat its mark10/10/2025 · OR 98 par1 @ ParisLongchamp 12/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 106 · 7f209y GS 125 · beat its mark12/04/2026 · OR 106 par12/041OR 1061 @ Newmarket 03/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 19 · OR 110 · 1m GF 128 · beat its mark03/05/2026 · OR 110 par1 @ Chantilly 14/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 111 · 1m2f96y Sft 125 · below its mark14/06/2026 · OR 111 par14/061OR 1111 @ Newmarket 10/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 111 · 1m GF 126 · beat its mark10/07/2026 · OR 111 par1 @ Deauville 02/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 111 · 7f209y Sft 123 · beat its mark02/08/2026 · OR 111 par2/081OR 111projClass-projected finish: 5th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-02Deauville14th4th0
2026-07-10Newmarket14th4th0
2026-06-14Chantilly18th8th0
2026-05-03Newmarket12nd2nd0
2026-04-12ParisLongchamp11st2nd−0
2025-10-10Newmarket13rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/0710/1014/062/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 48/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength66%

Delivery trend +8.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/07/20254th11/893%40%-0.53
08/08/20251st13/891%100%+0.09
23/08/20253rd9/153%60%+0.07
10/10/20253rd18/15%78%+0.73
12/04/20261st11/271%100%+0.29
03/05/20262nd16/116%94%+0.79
14/06/20268th15/261%30%-0.31
10/07/20264th20/10%50%+0.50
02/08/20264th25/10%57%+0.57