3
Kon Tiki
4yo Filly · 9-5 · Draw 2 · OR 108
Newmarket · BetMGM Sun Chariot Stakes (Fillies' & Mares' Group 1) · 1m
#7
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.6
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Sandown | 1 | 9th | 10th | −0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Ascot | 1 | 1st | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Royal Ascot | 1 | 4th | 4th | −0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Goodwood | 1 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-06-20 | Royal Ascot | 1 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-05-16 | York | 1 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 4-7 · tight 68/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▼
Strength5%
Delivery trend -5.8% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/12/2024 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 09/04/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 16/05/2025 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 20/06/2025 | 7th | 17/2 | 55% | 40% | -0.15 |
| 02/05/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 80% | +0.17 |
| 17/06/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 79% | +0.42 |
| 25/07/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 29/08/2026 | 9th | 3/1 | 84% | 11% | -0.73 |