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6

Moon Target

3yo Filly · 9-2 · Draw 7 · OR 110

Newmarket · BetMGM Sun Chariot Stakes (Fillies' & Mares' Group 1) · 1m

#6

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Smart and improved efforts when reaching frame in Group 1s at Royal Ascot (2 lengths fourth to Precise) and Deauville (2¼ lengths third to Blue Bolt) this summer. Close third (with 3 of today's rivals behind) in Atalanta at Sandown (1m, soft) latest but probably more a place than win contender.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength18%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 3.6)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.3
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Newmarket 19/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR - · 7f GS 12819/0724 @ Yarmouth 03/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR - · 7f3y Gd 1351 @ Goodwood 24/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 94 · 7f Goo 128 · beat its mark24/08/2025 · OR 94 par24/081OR 941 @ Doncaster 11/09/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 100 · 1m Goo 128 · beat its mark11/09/2025 · OR 100 par1 @ Newmarket 26/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 103 · 7f GF 128 · beat its mark26/09/2025 · OR 103 par26/091OR 1031 @ Newmarket 10/10/2025 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 103 · 1m Goo 128 · beat its mark10/10/2025 · OR 103 par1 @ Royal Ascot 19/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 103 · 7f213y GF 128 · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 103 par19/061OR 1031 @ Deauville 02/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 108 · 7f209y Sft 123 · beat its mark02/08/2026 · OR 108 par1 @ Sandown 29/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 111 · 1m GS 126 · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 111 par29/081OR 111projClass-projected finish: 4th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-29Sandown13rd4th−0
2026-08-02Deauville13rd3rd0
2026-06-19Royal Ascot14th4th0
2025-10-10Newmarket18th8th0
2025-09-26Newmarket13rd3rd−0
2025-09-11Doncaster17th7th−0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/0711/0919/0629/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 48/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength71%

Delivery trend +5.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/07/20251st5/287%100%+0.13
03/08/20251st1/398%100%+0.02
24/08/20252nd13/891%83%-0.08
11/09/20257th11/1094%14%-0.80
26/09/20253rd5/174%78%+0.04
10/10/20258th14/126%22%-0.04
19/06/20264th33/10%63%+0.63
02/08/20263rd18/15%71%+0.66
29/08/20263rd7/282%78%-0.04