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8

Blue Hercules

3yo Colt · 8-3 · Draw 3 · OR 84

Newmarket · HKJC World Pool Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 4f

#8

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Free-going maiden who often races prominently. Posted a couple of fairly useful efforts in Ascot handicaps earlier this summer. Overexuberance contributed to a 10-length defeat in Carlisle maiden (11f) latest, however, he's not out of this if consenting to settle back in handicap company.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.7
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Newbury 18/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR - · 1m3f Goo 13318/0423 @ Newbury 15/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR - · 1m2f Gd 1333 @ Chepstow 29/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 1m2f Goo 12829/0532 @ Royal Ascot 18/06/2026 · Pos 18th of 19 · OR 85 · 1m3f211y GF 120 · beat its mark18/06/2026 · OR 85 par2 @ Ascot 11/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 83 · 1m3f211y GF 114 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 83 par11/072OR 833 @ Ascot 08/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 86 · 1m3f211y GF 136 · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 86 par3 @ Ffos Las 27/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 86 · 1m3f209y Gd 133 · beat its mark27/08/2026 · OR 86 par27/083OR 863 @ Carlisle 09/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 85 · 1m3f39y Goo 133 · beat its mark09/09/2026 · OR 85 par9/093OR 85projClass-projected finish: 5th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09Carlisle33rd4th−1
2026-08-27Ffos Las32nd3rd−1
2026-08-08Ascot35th6th−1
2026-07-11Ascot22nd2nd0
2026-06-18Royal Ascot218th18th0
2026-05-29Chepstow32nd3rd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/0418/0627/089/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 80% of fieldRange 2-8 · tight 45/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength46%

Delivery trend -5.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/04/20268th33/10%0%0.00
15/05/20264th125/10%63%+0.63
29/05/20262nd14/126%86%+0.59
18/06/202618th80/10%6%+0.06
11/07/20262nd18/15%86%+0.80
08/08/20265th10/147%56%+0.08
27/08/20262nd6/594%75%-0.19
09/09/20263rd10/382%82%-0.01