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Ernst Blofeld

4yo Gelding · 9-7 · Draw 1 · OR 96

Newmarket · HKJC World Pool Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 4f

#5

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Quirky sort who recorded a second career win at Kempton in late-May. Remained in form in top-end handicaps since, aided by the run of the race when 1¼-length second in the Mallard at Doncaster (14.5f). Things unlikely to unfold as favourably back down in distance but good-value claimer takes over.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength33%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.3
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Newbury 17/05/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 91 · 1m2f GF 129 · beat its mark17/05/2025 · OR 91 par17/052OR 912 @ Royal Ascot 21/06/2025 · Pos 15th of 15 · OR 92 · 1m1f212y GF 127 · below its mark21/06/2025 · OR 92 par2 @ Goodwood 31/07/2025 · Pos 14th of 18 · OR 91 · 1m1f197y Goo 126 · beat its mark31/07/2025 · OR 91 par31/072OR 913 @ Newmarket 15/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 89 · 1m4f Gd 134 · beat its mark15/05/2026 · OR 89 par3 @ Kempton 27/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 89 · 1m3f219y Sta 134 · beat its mark27/05/2026 · OR 89 par27/053OR 892 @ Royal Ascot 16/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 16 · OR 96 · 1m6f34y GF 134 · beat its mark16/06/2026 · OR 96 par2 @ Ascot 11/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 96 · 1m3f211y GF 138 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 96 par11/072OR 962 @ York 21/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 16 · OR 95 · 1m3f188y GS 133 · beat its mark21/08/2026 · OR 95 par2 @ Doncaster 13/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 95 · 1m6f115y Goo 131 · beat its mark13/09/2026 · OR 95 par13/092OR 95projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-13Doncaster22nd2nd0
2026-08-21York25th5th0
2026-07-11Ascot25th5th0
2026-06-16Royal Ascot27th7th0
2026-05-27Kempton31st2nd−1
2026-05-15Newmarket34th5th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/0515/0511/0713/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 72/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +5.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/05/20254th9/153%63%+0.10
21/06/202515th10/147%0%-0.47
31/07/202514th16/116%24%+0.08
15/05/20264th11/271%57%-0.14
27/05/20261st10/382%100%+0.18
16/06/20267th14/126%60%+0.34
11/07/20265th13/891%43%-0.49
21/08/20265th25/10%73%+0.73
13/09/20262nd11/271%86%+0.15