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Evanesco

3yo Colt · 9-9 · Draw 4 · OR 104

Newmarket · HKJC World Pool Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 4f

#3

Rank

Odds

11/4

Win Prob

7%

Place Prob

15%

Rank

#3

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Uncomplicated sort. Travelled well/tracked a true pace when landing the Silver Bell Handicap at Hamilton in August. Since posted another smart performance when 1¾-length fifth in a valuable big-field handicap at Leopardstown (13f), and he looks the class act in this field.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲2
Strength21%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.6
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.6
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Salisbury 12/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 88 · 1m Sft 131 · beat its mark12/09/2025 · OR 88 par12/094OR 88C5 @ ParisLongchamp 04/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 16 · OR 88 · 7f209y GS 125 · below its mark04/10/2025 · OR 88 par3 @ Newmarket 15/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 92 · 1m2f Gd 137 · beat its mark15/04/2026 · OR 92 par15/043OR 923 @ Newmarket 03/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 92 · 1m2f GF 132 · beat its mark03/05/2026 · OR 92 par2 @ Royal Ascot 20/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 16 · OR 100 · 1m1f212y GF 132 · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 100 par20/062OR 1002 @ Newmarket 10/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 100 · 1m2f GF 135 · below its mark10/07/2026 · OR 100 par2 @ Goodwood 30/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 99 · 1m1f197y Goo 134 · beat its mark30/07/2026 · OR 99 par30/072OR 992 @ Hamilton 21/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 99 · 1m4f15y GS 128 · beat its mark21/08/2026 · OR 99 parBHA104 @ Leopardstown 12/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 21 · OR 104 · 1m5f Gd 133 · below its mark12/09/2026 · OR 104 par12/09104OR 104projClass-projected finish: 4th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12LeopardstownBHA1045th15th−8
2026-08-21Hamilton21st1st0
2026-07-30Goodwood23rd3rd0
2026-07-10Newmarket25th5th0
2026-06-20Royal Ascot27th7th0
2026-05-03Newmarket31st2nd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/093/0530/0712/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 78/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +3.4% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/09/20251st4/596%100%+0.04
04/10/20257th8/158%60%+0.02
15/04/20264th5/287%57%-0.30
03/05/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
20/06/20267th12/137%60%+0.23
10/07/20265th11/486%20%-0.66
30/07/20263rd11/142%85%+0.43
21/08/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
12/09/20265th9/153%80%+0.27