IvyArcIvyArc
9

Polka Blue

3yo Filly · 8-13 · Draw 3 · OR 77

Newmarket · Experience The Thrill With Kennet Valley Syndicates Fillies' Handicap · 7f

#8

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Off the mark at Leicester (6f) in May and scored again at Lingfield (7f, all-weather) the following month. Has shaped as if still in good heart since, very slowly away in 20-runner contest at Glorious Goodwood (6f) but making up ground to finish mid-field.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲1
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 4.1)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 3
Class gap: -1.3
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Southwell 07/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR - · 7f14y Std 1287/1055 @ Leicester 28/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 72 · 6f Sft 128 · beat its mark28/10/2025 · OR 72 par5 @ Southwell 02/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 70 · 7f14y Std 135 · beat its mark02/04/2026 · OR 70 par2/045OR 705 @ Lingfield 20/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 69 · 7f2y Std 128 · beat its mark20/04/2026 · OR 69 par5 @ Leicester 26/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 68 · 6f Goo 133 · beat its mark26/05/2026 · OR 68 par26/055OR 685 @ Lingfield 04/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 68 · 7f1y Std 136 · beat its mark04/06/2026 · OR 68 par4 @ Newmarket 26/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 78 · 6f GF 129 · beat its mark26/06/2026 · OR 78 par26/064OR 784 @ Chester 11/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 78 · 6f17y Goo 128 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 78 par3 @ Goodwood 28/07/2026 · Pos 10th of 20 · OR 77 · 6f Goo 115 · beat its mark28/07/2026 · OR 77 par28/073OR 77projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-28Goodwood310th10th0
2026-07-11Chester43rd4th−1
2026-06-26Newmarket43rd4th−1
2026-06-04Lingfield51st3rd−2
2026-05-26Leicester51st3rd−2
2026-04-20Lingfield53rd5th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today7/1020/0426/0628/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 70/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength86%

Delivery trend +5.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
07/10/20253rd7/282%83%+0.02
28/10/20254th4/179%50%-0.29
02/04/20264th7/282%50%-0.32
20/04/20263rd5/287%75%-0.12
26/05/20261st6/168%100%+0.32
04/06/20261st1/195%100%+0.05
26/06/20263rd4/179%67%-0.12
11/07/20263rd7/163%60%-0.03
28/07/202610th33/10%53%+0.53