10
Velvet Rhythm
3yo Filly · 8-11 · Draw 5 · OR 75
Newmarket · Experience The Thrill With Kennet Valley Syndicates Fillies' Handicap · 7f
#2
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#2
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 8.5 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | Epsom Downs | 4 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-09-18 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-08-31 | Epsom Downs | 3 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-24 | Musselburgh | 4 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-29 | Goodwood | 4 | 24th | 25th | −1 |
| 2026-07-18 | Newbury | 3 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 50/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength64%
Delivery trend +1.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/06/2026 | 8th | 7/2 | 82% | 22% | -0.59 |
| 22/06/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 08/07/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 18/07/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 60% | -0.08 |
| 29/07/2026 | 24th | 25/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 24/08/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 78% | +0.12 |
| 31/08/2026 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 14% | -0.49 |
| 18/09/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 82% | +0.21 |
| 27/09/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 56% | -0.10 |