1
Asakir
3yo Gelding · 9-2 · Draw 4 · OR 100
ParisLongchamp · Qatar Prix Chaudenay (Group 2) · 1m 6f 200y
#3
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲4
Strength6%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 7.9 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 1
Class gap: -3.9
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-17 | Royal Ascot | 1 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Navan | 1 | 2nd | 3rd | −0 |
| 2026-04-15 | Leopardstown | ? | 1st | 10th | −8 |
| 2026-03-28 | Curragh | ? | 3rd | 12th | −8 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 4-8 · tight 58/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength23%
Delivery trend -13.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/03/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 78% | +0.41 |
| 15/04/2026 | 1st | 85/40 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 16/05/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 75% | -0.14 |
| 17/06/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |