8
Light Of Thunder
3yo Filly · 8-12 · Draw 3
ParisLongchamp · Qatar Prix Chaudenay (Group 2) · 1m 6f 200y
#2
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARK
Move▲3
Strength7%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 1
Class gap: -2.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Deauville | 3 | 5th | 8th | −3 |
| 2026-07-02 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-28 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Saint-Cloud | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-30 | Chantilly | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-02-20 | Chantilly | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 6-8 · tight 78/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -5.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/09/2025 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 28/12/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 56% | +0.19 |
| 29/01/2026 | 3rd | 22/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 20/02/2026 | 1st | 11/1 | 42% | 100% | +0.58 |
| 30/03/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 43% | +0.06 |
| 01/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 93% | +0.19 |
| 28/05/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 83% | +0.20 |
| 02/07/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 25/08/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 71% | -0.10 |