2
Winday
3yo Gelding · 9-2 · Draw 6 · OR 97
ParisLongchamp · Qatar Prix Chaudenay (Group 2) · 1m 6f 200y
#5
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲3
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 8.1 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.9
Today: 1
Class gap: -2.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Doncaster | 1 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-27 | Ffos Las | 3 | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-05-30 | Auteuil | 1 | 3rd | 4th | −0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Auteuil | 1 | 4th | 4th | −0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Auteuil | ? | 2nd | 11th | −8 |
| 2025-10-04 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 14th | 19th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 7-8 · tight 84/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -12.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08/2025 | 7th | 22/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 31/08/2025 | 3rd | 150/1 | 0% | 82% | +0.82 |
| 04/10/2025 | 14th | 33/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 19/04/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 92% | +0.15 |
| 17/05/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 30/05/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 67% | +0.04 |
| 27/08/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 11/09/2026 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |