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7

Distant Storm

3yo Colt · 8-11 · Draw 7 · OR 114

ParisLongchamp · Qatar Prix Dollar (Group 2) · 1m 1f 152y

#1

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

38%

Place Prob

33%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength27%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 2.0)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.4
Today: 1
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Newmarket 11/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR - · 7f GF 12811/0731 @ York 20/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR - · 7f Goo 12920/0811 @ Newmarket 25/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 100 · 7f Goo 128 · beat its mark25/09/2025 · OR 100 par25/091OR 1001 @ Newmarket 11/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 114 · 7f Goo 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/10/2025 · OR 114 par11/101OR 1141 @ Newmarket 02/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 115 · 1m GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/05/2026 · OR 115 par2/051OR 1151 @ Curragh 23/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 114 · 1m Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/05/2026 · OR 114 par23/051OR 114C1 @ Deauville 09/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 114 · 7f209y GS 125 · beat its mark09/08/2026 · OR 114 par9/08C1OR 114projClass-projected finish: 1st of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-09Deauville?1st1st−0
2026-05-23Curragh12nd2nd+0
2026-05-02Newmarket13rd3rd+0
2025-10-11Newmarket13rd3rd+0
2025-09-25Newmarket11st1st−0
2025-08-20York13rd3rd−0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/0711/109/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 75/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▲
Strength83%

Delivery trend +2.6% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/07/20251st5/696%100%+0.04
20/08/20253rd11/1094%67%-0.28
25/09/20251st6/594%100%+0.06
11/10/20253rd9/488%75%-0.13
02/05/20263rd3/184%85%+0.00
23/05/20262nd5/174%88%+0.14
09/08/20261st4/696%100%+0.04