4
First Look
5yo Gelding · 9-2 · Draw 6 · OR 115
ParisLongchamp · Qatar Prix Dollar (Group 2) · 1m 1f 152y
#2
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
38%
Place Prob
33%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength21%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.4
Today: 1
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Deauville | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | −0 |
| 2026-04-26 | ParisLongchamp | 1 | 5th | 5th | +0 |
| 2026-04-05 | ParisLongchamp | 1 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-15 | Saint-Cloud | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | −0 |
| 2025-10-18 | Ascot | 1 | 5th | 5th | +0 |
| 2025-10-04 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 34/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength53%
Delivery trend +0.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/04/2025 | 3rd | 1/3 | 98% | 50% | -0.48 |
| 02/08/2025 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 16/08/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 04/10/2025 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 18/10/2025 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 15/03/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 67% | -0.15 |
| 05/04/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 26/04/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 15/08/2026 | 3rd | 17/2 | 55% | 71% | +0.16 |