6
Phineas
4yo Gelding · 9-2 · Draw 4
ParisLongchamp · Qatar Prix Dollar (Group 2) · 1m 1f 152y
#3
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
23%
Place Prob
25%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 2.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.6
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 1st | 1st | −0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Clairefontaine | 1 | 1st | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Compiegne | 1 | 1st | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-04-02 | Chantilly | 2 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-06-08 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 3rd | 4th | −0 |
| 2025-04-28 | Chantilly | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 76/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength93%
Delivery trend +2.5% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/03/2025 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 55% | -0.17 |
| 12/04/2025 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 92% | -0.00 |
| 28/04/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 08/06/2025 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 50% | -0.38 |
| 02/04/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 20/06/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 01/08/2026 | 1st | 4/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 13/09/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |