6
Kiaora Du Soleil
4yo Filly · 9-2 · Draw 11
ParisLongchamp · Qatar Arabian Trophy Des Juments (Arab Group 1) · 1m 1f 207y
#1
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
19%
Place Prob
19%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARK
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.8
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-21 | Toulouse | 1 | 1st | 1st | −0 |
| 2026-04-22 | La Teste De Buch | ? | 2nd | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-03-23 | Mont De Marsan | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2025-08-29 | La Teste De Buch | ? | 8th | 8th | −0 |
| 2025-08-11 | La Teste De Buch | ? | 4th | 9th | −4 |
| 2025-07-12 | La Teste De Buch | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 12100% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 71/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +8.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07/2025 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 86% | +0.20 |
| 11/08/2025 | 4th | 10/11 | 95% | 73% | -0.22 |
| 29/08/2025 | 8th | 13/2 | 66% | 22% | -0.44 |
| 23/03/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 22/04/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 88% | +0.51 |
| 21/05/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |