3
Manarah El Izz
4yo Filly · 9-2 · Draw 2
ParisLongchamp · Qatar Arabian Trophy Des Juments (Arab Group 1) · 1m 1f 207y
#5
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARK
Move▲3
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 2.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 1
Class gap: -3.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | La Teste De Buch | ? | 1st | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Mont De Marsan | ? | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
| 2026-07-01 | La Teste De Buch | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2026-06-03 | La Teste De Buch | ? | 5th | 10th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1255% of fieldRange 4-9 · tight 62/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength51%
Delivery trend -1.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/06/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 71% | +0.11 |
| 01/07/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 29/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/6 | 96% | 86% | -0.10 |
| 19/08/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |