1
Melodie Du Croate
4yo Filly · 9-2 · Draw 4
ParisLongchamp · Qatar Arabian Trophy Des Juments (Arab Group 1) · 1m 1f 207y
#3
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
11%
Place Prob
14%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARK
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.4
Today: 1
Class gap: -2.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | La Teste De Buch | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −0 |
| 2026-07-11 | La Teste De Buch | 1 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | La Teste De Buch | ? | 3rd | 8th | −4 |
| 2026-04-22 | La Teste De Buch | ? | 5th | 5th | −0 |
| 2025-11-16 | Toulouse | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2025-10-10 | Toulouse | ? | 3rd | 8th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1282% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 61/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength75%
Delivery trend +5.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10/2025 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 16/11/2025 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 22/04/2026 | 5th | 22/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 03/06/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 86% | -0.01 |
| 11/07/2026 | 6th | 22/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 19/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 83% | +0.41 |