Annabel's Ghost

5yo Gelding · 9-3 · Draw 6

ParisLongchamp · Qatar Prix de la Place des Vosges Handicap · 1m 4f 94y

#11

Rank

Odds

22/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

#11

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE

▲ BEATS ITS MARK

Move▲1

Strength8%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 8.2 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C2.2

Today: 1

Class gap: -1.2

Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-07-31	Goodwood	2	13th	14th	−1	1.0
2026-06-16	Royal Ascot	2	5th	6th	−1	3.8
2026-04-23	ParisLongchamp	?	13th	13th	0	1.0
2026-03-31	Fontainebleau	2	7th	8th	−1	1.8
2026-03-04	Le Mans	2	3rd	4th	−1	5.8
2026-01-31	Chantilly	3	1st	3rd	−2	6.6

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish12th of 1835% of fieldRange 5-18 · tight 48/100

▬ OVER-DELIVERING

Trend▬

Strength13%

Delivery trend -1.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 12th of 18.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
19/10/2025	6th	33/1	0%	67%	+0.67
18/11/2025	5th	7/2	82%	33%	-0.48
11/12/2025	11th	25/1	0%	33%	+0.33
31/01/2026	1st	11/1	42%	100%	+0.58
04/03/2026	3rd	7/2	82%	50%	-0.32
31/03/2026	7th	16/1	16%	60%	+0.44
23/04/2026	13th	28/1	0%	20%	+0.20
16/06/2026	5th	40/1	0%	79%	+0.79
31/07/2026	13th	17/2	55%	14%	-0.41