10
Arnay Le Duc
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · Draw 1
ParisLongchamp · Qatar Prix de la Place des Vosges Handicap · 1m 4f 94y
#9
Rank
Odds
40/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARK
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.8 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.7
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Deauville | 2 | 14th | 15th | −1 |
| 2026-08-07 | Clairefontaine | 3 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-07-10 | Compiegne | 3 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-05-22 | Saint-Cloud | 3 | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-05-09 | Compiegne | 2 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-04-25 | Compiegne | 3 | 7th | 9th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish15th of 1818% of fieldRange 17-18 · tight 88/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -6.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 15th of 18. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08/2025 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 31/08/2025 | 7th | 66/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 13/11/2025 | 1st | 11/1 | 42% | 100% | +0.58 |
| 25/04/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 09/05/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 22/05/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 50% | -0.13 |
| 10/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/6 | 96% | 86% | -0.10 |
| 07/08/2026 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 25/08/2026 | 14th | 12/1 | 37% | 13% | -0.24 |