16
Zelker
4yo Gelding · 8-5 · Draw 15
ParisLongchamp · Qatar Prix de la Place des Vosges Handicap · 1m 4f 94y
#12
Rank
Odds
18/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARK
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.8
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | ParisLongchamp | 2 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-21 | ParisLongchamp | 3 | 7th | 9th | −2 |
| 2026-04-24 | Saint-Cloud | 3 | 7th | 9th | −2 |
| 2026-03-27 | Compiegne | 3 | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2025-10-09 | Saint-Cloud | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-09-11 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 1829% of fieldRange 5-18 · tight 48/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength15%
Delivery trend -3.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 13th of 18. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/05/2025 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 46% | +0.46 |
| 16/06/2025 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 15/08/2025 | 11th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 11/09/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 79% | +0.79 |
| 09/10/2025 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 67% | +0.09 |
| 27/03/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 73% | -0.04 |
| 24/04/2026 | 7th | 9/4 | 88% | 25% | -0.63 |
| 21/05/2026 | 7th | 17/2 | 55% | 60% | +0.05 |
| 06/09/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 87% | +0.87 |