6
Astabuen
2yo Colt · 8-13 · Draw 6 · OR 78
ParisLongchamp · Arqana Series - Haras de Bouquetot Criterium d'Automne Stakes · 7f 209y
#3
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ NO MARK
Move▲1
Strength16%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 2.5)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Epsom Downs | 3 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-08-21 | Newmarket | 3 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1543% of fieldRange 15-15 · tight 71/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -59.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 15. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/08/2026 | 3rd | 22/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 10/09/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 89% | +0.01 |