5
Hello Major Tom
2yo Colt · 8-13 · Draw 2
ParisLongchamp · Arqana Series - Haras de Bouquetot Criterium d'Automne Stakes · 7f 209y
#14
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#14
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARK
Move▲3
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Class-adjusted form 7.7 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 2
Class gap: -2.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Lyon-Parilly | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-08-09 | Deauville | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
| 2026-07-07 | Chantilly | ? | 5th | 8th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 157% of fieldRange 8-10 · tight 72/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength44%
Delivery trend +12.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 14th of 15. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07/2026 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 50% | +0.08 |
| 09/08/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 15/09/2026 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 75% | +0.33 |