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4

Moon Sand

2yo Colt · 8-13 · Draw 8 · OR 77

ParisLongchamp · Arqana Series - Haras de Bouquetot Criterium d'Automne Stakes · 7f 209y

#11

Rank

Odds

18/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

Class Advantage Projection

Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▲6
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.

Class-adjusted form 13.4 /10 (raw 6.3)

Highest class: BHA77
Recent avg: C7.9
Today: 2
Class gap: -5.9
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Curragh 16/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR - · 1m1f Goo 13316/08C8C8 @ Curragh 29/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR - · 1m Goo 13129/08C8C8 @ Naas 17/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR - · 5f205y Yie 13117/09C8BHA77 @ Curragh 27/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 77 · 7f Hvy 135 · beat its mark27/09/2026 · OR 77 par27/0977OR 77projClass-projected finish: 11th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-27CurraghBHA771st8th−6
2026-09-17Naas?6th13th−6
2026-08-29Curragh?9th16th−6
2026-08-16Curragh?9th16th−6

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/0829/0817/0927/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 1514% of fieldRange 4-15 · tight 42/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength40%

Delivery trend +2.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 13th of 15. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/08/20269th80/10%11%+0.11
29/08/20269th150/10%33%+0.33
17/09/20266th66/10%55%+0.55
27/09/20261st5/287%100%+0.13