8
Amelia Earhart
3yo Filly · 8-11 · Draw 9 · OR 105
ParisLongchamp · Qatar Prix de Royallieu (Group 1) · 1m 5f 202y
#7
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 3.1)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.4
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Doncaster | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-14 | Cork | 1 | 2nd | 3rd | −0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Goodwood | 1 | 5th | 5th | −0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Curragh | 1 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Epsom Downs | 1 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-06 | Chester | 1 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1140% of fieldRange 2-11 · tight 39/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▲
Strength39%
Delivery trend +4.5% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09/2025 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 89% | -0.01 |
| 28/09/2025 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 63% | -0.22 |
| 18/10/2025 | 1st | 4/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 06/05/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 05/06/2026 | 6th | 7/4 | 91% | 38% | -0.53 |
| 18/07/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 56% | -0.18 |
| 01/08/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 20% | -0.41 |
| 14/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 86% | +0.00 |
| 12/09/2026 | 3rd | 22/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |