5
Consent
4yo Filly · 9-4 · Draw 1 · OR 112
ParisLongchamp · Qatar Prix de Royallieu (Group 1) · 1m 5f 202y
#1
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
93%
Place Prob
75%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 2.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.4
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Doncaster | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | −0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Goodwood | 1 | 4th | 4th | −0 |
| 2026-05-21 | ParisLongchamp | 1 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-10-04 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-09-11 | Doncaster | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | −0 |
| 2025-08-17 | Deauville | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1180% of fieldRange 2-10 · tight 47/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength47%
Delivery trend -3.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08/2024 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 28/09/2024 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 75% | -0.19 |
| 19/07/2025 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 17/08/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 89% | +0.03 |
| 11/09/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 90% | +0.16 |
| 04/10/2025 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 21/05/2026 | 9th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 01/08/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 40% | -0.34 |
| 10/09/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 67% | +0.01 |