10
Earth Shot
3yo Filly · 8-11 · Draw 5 · OR 109
ParisLongchamp · Qatar Prix de Royallieu (Group 1) · 1m 5f 202y
#5
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲1
Strength6%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 2.7)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.3
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | York | 1 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Curragh | 1 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Royal Ascot | 1 | 1st | 1st | −0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Goodwood | 1 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-01 | Newmarket | 2 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-10-25 | Newbury | 4 | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1170% of fieldRange 1-11 · tight 26/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength60%
Delivery trend -0.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 88% | +0.40 |
| 01/05/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 23/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 86% | -0.07 |
| 18/06/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 18/07/2026 | 6th | 9/4 | 88% | 44% | -0.44 |
| 20/08/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |