1
Fairy Glen
5yo Filly · 9-4 · Draw 8 · OR 111
ParisLongchamp · Qatar Prix de Royallieu (Group 1) · 1m 5f 202y
#4
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength21%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 2.5)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.6
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Yarmouth | 1 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-21 | ParisLongchamp | 1 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-28 | Meydan | ? | 1st | 1st | −0 |
| 2026-02-20 | Meydan | ? | 1st | 1st | −0 |
| 2025-11-20 | Lingfield | 1 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-10-09 | Bath | 1 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1150% of fieldRange 3-11 · tight 47/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength32%
Delivery trend +3.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09/2024 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 90% | +0.16 |
| 10/10/2024 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 63% | -0.22 |
| 12/09/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |
| 09/10/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 92% | +0.15 |
| 20/11/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 20/02/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 28/03/2026 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 21/05/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 16/09/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 90% | -0.01 |