7
Santorini Star
5yo Filly · 9-4 · Draw 7 · OR 111
ParisLongchamp · Qatar Prix de Royallieu (Group 1) · 1m 5f 202y
#2
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
7%
Place Prob
20%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 2.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.3
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Deauville | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Goodwood | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Royal Ascot | 1 | 12th | 12th | −0 |
| 2026-05-21 | ParisLongchamp | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Newmarket | 1 | 1st | 1st | −0 |
| 2025-10-04 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1190% of fieldRange 4-8 · tight 72/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▬
Strength52%
Delivery trend -1.7% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 2nd of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07/2025 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 63% | -0.22 |
| 20/08/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 11/09/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 04/10/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 91% | +0.12 |
| 01/05/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 21/05/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 88% | +0.22 |
| 20/06/2026 | 12th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 01/08/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 23/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/6 | 96% | 75% | -0.21 |