11
Sugar Island
3yo Filly · 8-11 · Draw 11 · OR 102
ParisLongchamp · Qatar Prix de Royallieu (Group 1) · 1m 5f 202y
#11
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength16%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 6.4 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.4
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | York | 1 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Curragh | 1 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Epsom Downs | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-06 | Chester | 1 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-10-21 | Curragh | 1 | 1st | 2nd | −0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1110% of fieldRange 2-11 · tight 39/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength39%
Delivery trend +7.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08/2025 | 5th | 5/4 | 93% | 20% | -0.73 |
| 11/09/2025 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 71% | +0.06 |
| 10/10/2025 | 9th | 18/1 | 5% | 11% | +0.06 |
| 21/10/2025 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 06/05/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 25% | -0.38 |
| 05/06/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 18/07/2026 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 20/08/2026 | 7th | 100/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 06/09/2026 | 12th | 100/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |