3
Waardah
4yo Filly · 9-4 · Draw 2 · OR 112
ParisLongchamp · Qatar Prix de Royallieu (Group 1) · 1m 5f 202y
#3
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 2.9)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.5
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Doncaster | 1 | 1st | 1st | −0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Goodwood | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | −0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Carlisle | 1 | 2nd | 3rd | −0 |
| 2025-10-18 | Ascot | 1 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-08-02 | Goodwood | 1 | 1st | 1st | −0 |
| 2025-06-08 | Goodwood | 1 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 11100% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 55/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength68%
Delivery trend -0.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09/2024 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 02/11/2024 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 43% | -0.40 |
| 27/04/2025 | 4th | 18/5 | 81% | 57% | -0.24 |
| 08/06/2025 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 02/08/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 18/10/2025 | 8th | 8/1 | 58% | 22% | -0.36 |
| 30/05/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |
| 01/08/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 60% | -0.28 |
| 10/09/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |