7
Caballo De Mar
5yo Gelding · 9-2 · Draw 2 · OR 115
ParisLongchamp · Qatar Prix du Cadran (Group 1) · 2m 3f 194y
#1
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
99%
Place Prob
90%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.4
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Doncaster | 1 | 1st | 1st | −0 |
| 2026-08-21 | York | 1 | 4th | 4th | −0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Royal Ascot | 1 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-05-21 | ParisLongchamp | 1 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Ascot | 1 | 2nd | 3rd | −0 |
| 2026-03-28 | Meydan | ? | 2nd | 2nd | −0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-10 · tight 29/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength61%
Delivery trend -1.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09/2025 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 04/10/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 26/10/2025 | 7th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 28/03/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 89% | +0.28 |
| 01/05/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 86% | +0.07 |
| 21/05/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 18/06/2026 | 11th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 21/08/2026 | 4th | 7/4 | 91% | 57% | -0.34 |
| 11/09/2026 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |