4
Mr Hollywood
6yo Gelding · 9-2 · Draw 8 · OR 105
ParisLongchamp · Qatar Prix du Cadran (Group 1) · 2m 3f 194y
#5
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▲5
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 10.8 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 1
Class gap: -4.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | York | 2 | 20th | 22th | −2 |
| 2026-07-29 | Galway | ? | 1st | 10th | −8 |
| 2026-06-20 | Royal Ascot | 2 | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-05-11 | Killarney | ? | 3rd | 12th | −7 |
| 2025-09-24 | Toulouse | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2025-08-08 | Clairefontaine | ? | 4th | 9th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1022% of fieldRange 6-10 · tight 70/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength15%
Delivery trend +2.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04/2025 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 80% | -0.11 |
| 10/05/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 86% | -0.01 |
| 15/07/2025 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 43% | -0.15 |
| 08/08/2025 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 57% | -0.09 |
| 24/09/2025 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 11/05/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 71% | +0.03 |
| 20/06/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 83% | +0.68 |
| 29/07/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 22/08/2026 | 20th | 12/1 | 37% | 10% | -0.27 |