2
Queenstown
6yo Gelding · 9-2 · Draw 4 · OR 114
ParisLongchamp · Qatar Prix du Cadran (Group 1) · 2m 3f 194y
#3
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲2
Strength19%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.0
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Curragh | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-22 | Curragh | 1 | 1st | 2nd | −0 |
| 2025-10-26 | Saint-Cloud | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-04 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-09-28 | Curragh | BHA104 | 3rd | 15th | −10 |
| 2025-09-14 | Curragh | 1 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 1-2 · tight 86/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +9.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06/2025 | 6th | 85/40 | 89% | 17% | -0.72 |
| 19/07/2025 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 17% | +0.11 |
| 23/08/2025 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 90% | +0.90 |
| 14/09/2025 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 28/09/2025 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 93% | +0.93 |
| 04/10/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 71% | -0.10 |
| 26/10/2025 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 83% | +0.41 |
| 22/08/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 13/09/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |