5
Waldadler
7yo Gelding · 9-2 · Draw 9 · OR 105
ParisLongchamp · Qatar Prix du Cadran (Group 1) · 2m 3f 194y
#7
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.3
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 5th | 5th | −0 |
| 2025-09-14 | Curragh | 1 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-07-13 | ParisLongchamp | 1 | 5th | 5th | −0 |
| 2024-09-15 | Curragh | 1 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2024-08-18 | Deauville | ? | 4th | 4th | −0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 3-9 · tight 53/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength43%
Delivery trend +6.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/08/2024 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 25% | +0.20 |
| 15/09/2024 | 6th | 80/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 13/07/2025 | 5th | 100/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 14/09/2025 | 4th | 100/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 14/07/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |