4
Diego Ventura
4yo Gelding · 9-2 · Draw 4 · OR 107
ParisLongchamp · Qatar Prix Daniel Wildenstein (Group 2) · 7f 209y
#6
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 2.7)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.4
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Deauville | 1 | 1st | 1st | −0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Goodwood | 2 | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-06-04 | Hamilton | 2 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-05-14 | York | 2 | 7th | 9th | −2 |
| 2026-04-12 | ParisLongchamp | 1 | 6th | 7th | −0 |
| 2025-10-11 | Chantilly | ? | 3rd | 4th | −0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1022% of fieldRange 3-10 · tight 50/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength42%
Delivery trend +4.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/06/2025 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 71% | -0.17 |
| 28/06/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 63% | -0.11 |
| 01/08/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 11/10/2025 | 3rd | 17/2 | 55% | 71% | +0.16 |
| 12/04/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 17% | -0.49 |
| 14/05/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 65% | +0.65 |
| 04/06/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 31/07/2026 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 50% | +0.08 |
| 30/08/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |