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8

Fallen Angel

5yo Filly · 8-12 · Draw 9 · OR 111

ParisLongchamp · Qatar Prix Daniel Wildenstein (Group 2) · 7f 209y

#2

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

12%

Place Prob

25%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength32%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 3.1)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.3
Today: 1
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack1 @ Newbury 17/05/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 114 · 1m GF 125 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark17/05/2025 · OR 114 par17/051OR 1141 @ Royal Ascot 18/06/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 114 · 7f213y Goo 128 · beat its mark18/06/2025 · OR 114 par1 @ Deauville 03/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 112 · 7f209y Gd 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/08/2025 · OR 112 par3/081OR 1121 @ Leopardstown 13/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 115 · 1m Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/09/2025 · OR 115 par1 @ Newmarket 04/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 115 · 1m Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/10/2025 · OR 115 par4/101OR 1151 @ Ascot 18/10/2025 · Pos 10th of 16 · OR 116 · 1m Gd 129 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark18/10/2025 · OR 116 par1 @ York 14/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 4 · OR 116 · 1m2f56y Gd 131 · below its mark14/05/2026 · OR 116 par14/051OR 1161 @ Haydock 08/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 116 · 7f212y Goo 130 · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 116 par1 @ Leopardstown 12/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 114 · 1m Gd 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/09/2026 · OR 114 par12/091OR 114projClass-projected finish: 7th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12Leopardstown13rd3rd+0
2026-08-08Haydock13rd4th−0
2026-05-14York14th4th0
2025-10-18Ascot110th10th+0
2025-10-04Newmarket11st1st+0
2025-09-13Leopardstown11st1st+0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/0513/0914/0512/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 3-10 · tight 50/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength41%

Delivery trend -5.9% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/05/20256th20/10%29%+0.29
18/06/20253rd6/168%67%-0.02
03/08/20251st9/153%100%+0.47
13/09/20251st9/488%100%+0.12
04/10/20251st11/486%100%+0.14
18/10/202510th8/158%40%-0.18
14/05/20264th11/271%0%-0.71
08/08/20263rd11/893%78%-0.15
12/09/20263rd8/158%75%+0.17