7
Isaac Newton
3yo Colt · 8-12 · Draw 10 · OR 110
ParisLongchamp · Qatar Prix Daniel Wildenstein (Group 2) · 7f 209y
#7
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength21%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.6
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Leopardstown | 1 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Leopardstown | 1 | 1st | 1st | −0 |
| 2026-07-16 | Leopardstown | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | −0 |
| 2026-06-28 | Curragh | 1 | 6th | 6th | −0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Navan | 1 | 1st | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Lingfield | 1 | 5th | 6th | −0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1033% of fieldRange 1-10 · tight 29/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength62%
Delivery trend -0.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10/2025 | 5th | 11/10 | 94% | 73% | -0.21 |
| 26/10/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 15/04/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |
| 09/05/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 20% | -0.59 |
| 07/06/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 28/06/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 17% | -0.52 |
| 16/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 60% | -0.11 |
| 06/08/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 12/09/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |